The second budget of the year is coming up on Wednesday 27th October - next week. Throughout the last 12 months there have been rumblings that big tax increases will be coming down the line to pay for pandemic spending - but will they?
It's worth noting that two substantial tax increases have already been announced this year - corporation tax increasing from 19% to 25% for many companies from April 2023, and a 1.25% increase to national insurance and dividends from April 2022 as part of the Health and Social Care Levy.
Will further tax rises be announced? Whilst changes to capital and inheritance taxes have long been expected, it is unclear whether there is the political will to accept tax rises - there was a broad consensus during the pandemic that spending would need to be paid for, the Chancellor risks unrest among backbench Conservative MPs if he pushes too hard.
It seems more likely that smaller 'tinkering around the edges' will take place. Reports suggest tweaks to student loan repayments, alcohol duty and pension rules may be coming - although the pension industry is pushing back against any large scale changes. And, of course, details to flesh out the Government's recent Net Zero plan are likely to be forthcoming.
Overall - it will be an interesting budget, but perhaps not a memorable one.
The industry has warned the Autumn Budget was “not the time” to tinker with big ticket items such as tax relief and the Chancellor should instead make targeted interventions on issues such as the net pay anomaly and minimum pension age.